Tuesday, September 29, 2020

OddsShark: Joe Biden’s implied probability to win the 2020 election would be 54.55 percent AND President Trump’s at EVEN money odds would be 50.0 percent

Harvard-Harris 9/22 - 9/25 LV – 47 45 Biden +2

The Hill/HarrisX 9/22 - 9/25 2768 RV 1.9 45 40 Biden +5

Emerson 9/22 - 9/23 1000 LV 3.0 48 44 Biden +4

Rasmussen 9/16 - 9/22 3000 LV 2.5 48 47 Biden +1

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[I don’t believe any poll that has Biden at more than 48, so my very unscientific guess would be Biden +3]

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What Do the Numbers Mean?

For example

At -120, Joe Biden’s implied probability to win the 2020 election would be 54.55 percent

President Trump’s at EVEN money odds would be 50.0 percent

Trump had -180 odds, or 64.29 percent implied probability, to win the election during the last week of February.

https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures #OddsShark

[Trump’s gaining on Biden as far as the betting public’s concerned.]

 

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